Monday, October 9th 2023
Hi Oak Investors,
Welcome to another recap on the week’s action and events!
At Oak Investing, I look to provide value for all levels of investor, whether it’s pulling together the week’s best articles, insights and breaking news, or clarifying new concepts for beginners.
I hope you enjoy this week’s recap, please get in touch if there’s anything more you’d like to see in The Acorn. If you like what you see, please like, subscribe and share to keep growing the Oak Investor community! 🌳
Thanks,
Gordon
Summary 📝
Another week full of shocks and surprises! Last week’s jobs report was expected to show about 170,000 new jobs had been created in the US. This came through at over 360,000, sending the market into panic mode!
With such a strong economy, and strong employment data, the Federal Reserve could well continue raising interest rates to cool inflation.
Alongside this, we have major conflict again in Israel/Palestine, and the Congress speaker has been ousted. With CPI data coming next week, and earnings season about to begin, there’s no shortage of catalysts which could send the market in either direction!
A slight bounce in the tech sector last week sent the S&P 500 up 0.6%, NASDAQ climbed 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.1%.
The Volatility Index remains elevated, but still below the magical 20 which people tend to pay more attention to. The recent events in the middle east may send this flying again when the market opens.
At present, markets are pricing in a 79% chance of no change in rates at the next Fed meeting in early November.
The Fear and Greed index is now back in Fear territory, at 26/100. This always remains a good place to be making purchases. Sure, we might go down further with all the bad news and fear in the market, but as investors, we want to capture the majority of a rally rather than trying to foolishly pick an exact bottom of the market. IT NEVER WORKS!
As always, keep to your strategy, don’t let the noise change your plan, and learn as much as you can!
This Week in History 📰
Source- The History Place
October 11, 1939 - Albert Einstein warned President Franklin D. Roosevelt that his theories could lead to Nazi Germany's development of an atomic bomb. Einstein suggested the U.S. develop its own bomb. This resulted in the top secret "Manhattan Project."
October 12, 1492 - After a 33-day voyage, Christopher Columbus made his first landfall in the New World in the Bahamas.
October 14, 1947 - U.S. Air Force Captain Chuck Yeager became the first man to break the sound barrier, flying in a rocket-powered research aircraft.
Major Events This Week 🔬
Economic Events
Source- Unusual Whales
Monday
9:00 am Dallas Fed President Logan speaks
12:50 pm Fed Gov. Jefferson speaks
Tuesday
6:00 am NFIB optimism index
10:00 am Wholesale inventories
Wednesday
8:30 am Producer price index
8:30 am Core PPI
8:30 am PPI year over year
8:30 am Core PPI year over year
2:00 minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting
Thursday
8:30 am Initial jobless claims
8:30 am Consumer price index
8:30 am Core CPI
8:30 am CPI year over year
8:30 am Core CPI year over year
Friday
8:30 am Import price index
8:30 am Import price index minus fuel
10:00 am Consumer sentiment (preliminary)
Incoming Earnings Reports
Source- Earnings Whispers
Post of the Week 💌
✅ With 3 months left in 2023, what better time is there to do a check on your investment style, and maximise your potential? 📈
✅ I’ve compiled the activities I like to make sure everyone have considered as part of good investing. The core of this is knowing what you own, why you own it, and how to establish value, but also how to reduce the fees you’re paying as part of your investing. 💰
✅ The part most investors miss out on is building a community and support network. This can come from regularly talking about finance with friends, having others around you who enjoy investing, and finding media such as podcasts which bring the markets to life. 🥳
What other activities would you include in the challenge? And how many of these can you tick off before the end of the month? 🤔
What’s Moving Markets? 🏃♂️
Three stories I’m watching carefully this week. Source- CNBC
Israel says military has retaken control around Gaza
Israel is reeling from the deadliest attack suffered in half a century. Combat in the Gaza Strip continues, as Israel retaliates against a surprise offensive carried out by the militant organization Hamas early Saturday morning.
More than 700 Israelis have been killed in what Hamas is calling Operation Al Aqsa Flood, with at least 490 Palestinians killed in retaliatory Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip. The total number of deaths has surpassed 1,100, including foreign nationals.
Oil prices jump more than 2% in the wake of Hamas attack on Israel
Oil prices popped on Monday as the Israel-Hamas conflict extends into a third day following a surprise attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas.
“For this conflict to have a lasting and meaningful impact on oil markets, there must be a sustained reduction in oil supply or transport,” said Vivek Dhar, Commonwealth Bank’s director of mining and energy commodities research.
Israel’s central bank sells $30 billion in foreign reserves after shekel slides to seven-year low
The Bank of Israel announced it will sell up to $30 billion in a bid to support markets following the deadly incursion by Hamas militants over the weekend.
The Israeli shekel slid against the greenback to mark its weakest in seven years.
Chart of the Week 📈
Source- Chart of the Day
The U.S. labor market saw broad gains in September in a surprisingly strong jobs report that sparked a quick sell-off in the bond market.
The job market has continued to defy expectations of a significant slowdown, and in fact, the numbers for August and July were revised upward. That could be a sign that more workers are joining the labor market, either through immigration or by coming off the sideline, said Jason Furman, Harvard professor and former National Economic Council director.
Investor’s Toolkit ⚒️
Unusual Whales- Options Flow and Analysis 🛠
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SimplyWallSt- Stock Analysis 🛠
5% Discount with code OAK
Want to Work with Me? 📈
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Pick up a copy of The Investor’s Blueprint, and learn at your own pace 📚
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Thanks for reading, have a great day!
Gordon
Disclosure ✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.