Monday, January 8th 2024
Hi Oak Investors,
Welcome to another recap on the week’s action and events!
At Oak Investing, I look to provide value for all levels of investor, whether it’s pulling together the week’s best articles, insights and breaking news, or clarifying new concepts for beginners.
I hope you enjoy this week’s recap, please get in touch if there’s anything more you’d like to see in The Acorn. If you like what you see, please like, subscribe and share to keep growing the Oak Investor community! 🌳
Thanks,
Gordon
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Summary 📝
Markets kicked off 2024 with a rocky few days as a downgrade of AAPL 0.00%↑ sent the tech sector down, and as the predicted cuts in interest rates are questioned by investors.
Crypto continued to soar as the market holds its breath on the approval of the world’s first major Bitcoin ETF by the SEC.
Market Summary
S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑- 1.79%
NASDAQ QQQ 0.00%↑- 3.81%
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA 0.00%↑- 0.62%
The Volatility Index fell throughout the week, ending substantially down as markets continued to move past interest rate fears and inflation concerns.
At present, markets are pricing in a 95.3% chance of no change in rates at the next Fed meeting in late January, with a 4.7% chance of 25BPS cut!
Despite the volatility, the Fear and Greed index remained in the Extreme Greed category at 71/100.
This week promises to be another bouncy few days, as CPI data on Thursday, bank earnings, and of course the Bitcoin ETF decision, weigh on investor minds….
This Week in History 📰
Source- The History Place
January 8, 1959 - Charles de Gaulle took office as the first president of France's Fifth Republic.
January 9, 1960 - With the first blast of dynamite, construction work began on the Aswan High Dam across the Nile River in southern Egypt.
January 10, 1863 - The world's first underground railway service opened in London, the Metropolitan line between Paddington and Farringdon.
What’s on my Watchlist? 👀
Three stocks I think have an interesting week ahead.
With the imminent SEC decision on Bitcoin ETF’s, I’ve got all my near-term focus on crypto leaning companies like COIN 0.00%↑ , MARA 0.00%↑ and RIOT 0.00%↑.
What’s Moving Markets? 🏃♂️
Three stories I’ve got my eye on this week. Sourced from CNBC.
Top Goldman Sachs analyst says the world is moving into a new super cycle
The world economy is moving into a “different” super cycle, Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs, told “Squawk Box Europe.”
Artificial intelligence and decarbonization are two of the key factors that could have a positive impact during this new cycle, he said.
Oppenheimer also pointed out that there are historical parallels to current developments that could hold lessons for the future.
Boeing issues 737 Max 9 inspection instructions, a key step toward resuming flights
Boeing has given airlines instructions on how to inspect their 737 Max 9 jetliners, a step toward ending the grounding of the planes, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.
The FAA ordered airlines to stop flying dozens of the jets over the weekend, less than a day after a door plug blew open during an Alaska Airlines flight when it was at 16,000 feet.
Supreme Court rejects appeal by Elon Musk’s X on disclosing federal surveillance
The Supreme Court decline to take appeal by Elon Musk’s X company challenging a ban on the company disclosing federal surveillance of Americans and foreign nationals using the service.
X, formerly known as Twitter, had argued that the federal government’s prohibition on the company disclosing the receipt of national security-related surveillance of users was unconstitutional.
Musk also heads Tesla and SpaceX.
Department of Justice special counsel Jack Smith last year a search warrant for the Twitter account of former President Donald Trump as part of Smith’s criminal investigation of election interference.
Major Events This Week 🔬
Economic Events
Source- Unusual Whales
Monday
3 pm Consumer credit
Tuesday
8:30 am Trade deficit
Wednesday
10 am Wholesale inventories
3:15 pm New York Fed President John Williams speaks
Thursday
8:30 am Initial jobless claims
8:30 am CPI
8:30 am Core CPI
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year)
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year)
2:00 pm Budget statement
Friday
8:30 am PPI
8:30 am Core PPI (year-over-year)
Incoming Earnings Reports
Source- Savvy Trader
Notable Upcoming Earnings
Monday
CMC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.37% Sector: Basic Materials
Tuesday
TLRY (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 17.97% Sector: Healthcare
Thursday
INFY (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.94% Sector: Technology
Friday
BAC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 3.27% Sector: Financial Services
C (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 3.83% Sector: Financial Services
WFC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 3.34% Sector: Financial Services
JPM (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 2.73% Sector: Financial Services
DAL (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.26% Sector: Industrials
BLK (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 2.71% Sector: Financial Services
Volatility Watch 🔥
Provided by Seeking Alpha.
Monday - January 8
Volatility watch - Options trading volume has moved higher on Cytokinetics (CYTK) amid report of takeover interest. TeraWulf (WULF) has also seen more options bets placed on it than normal activity. Fisker (FSR) and Invitae (NVTA) both have an elevated level of short interest outstanding on them. The most overbought stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index are Cytokinetics (CYTK), Collegium (COLL), and RayzeBio (RYZB). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include Alternus Clean Energy (ALCE), Pono Capital Three (PTHR), and Global Mofy Metaverse (GMM).
Earnings watch - Notable companies due to report include Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) and Helen of Troy (HELE).
All day - The ICR Conference is one of the biggest retail sector conferences and typically features a flurry of guidance updates for the key holiday quarter. Some of the companies scheduled to participate include Five Below (FIVE), a.k.a. Brands (AKA), On Holding (ONON), Jack in the Box (JACK), Xponential Fitness (XPOF), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Walmart (WMT), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA), Solo Brands (DTC), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Portillo's (PTLO), Planet Fitness (PNT), Freshpet (FRPT), Dutch Bros (BROS), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Crocs (CROX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Lululemon (LULU).
All day - The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference is typically one of the bigger healthcare conferences of the year. In the past, M&A announcements, drug data results, and financial guidance updates have poured in around the conference. Some of the notable companies to watch include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Moderna (MRNA), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alpine Immune Sciences (OTC:APLN), Baxter International (BAX), CVS Health (CVS), GSK plc (GSK), and Incyte (INCY).
All day - The Manheim Used Car Price Index report will be released.
All day - Nvidia (NVDA), LG Electronics, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF), Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY), Hyundai (OTC:HYTLF), Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF), and Sony Group (SONY) are all scheduled to hold media events at CES.
12:30 p.m. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Rotary Club of Atlanta.
6:30 p.m. Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY) CEO Dr. Roland Busch will give a keynote address at CES.
Tuesday - January 9
Earnings watch - Notable companies due to report include Albertsons Companies (ACI), PriceSmart (PSMT), and Acuity Brands (AYI). Options trading implies a double-digit swing in share price for Tilray Brands (TLRY) after it reports.
11:00 a.m. Mobileye (MBLY) will hold its CES Press Conference with CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua.
1:15 p.m. VinFast Auto (VFS) will hold a press conference at CES.
1:30 p.m. Honda Motor (HMC) will hold a press conference at CES.
5:00 p.m. Walmart (WMT) CEO Doug McMillon will give a keynote address at CES, during which he will share Walmart’s vision to design and build technology that will usher in the next generation of retail.
8:00 p.m. Intel (INTC) CEO Pat Gelsinger will participate in a keynote conversation at CES, discussing the critical roles that silicon and software play in making AI more accessible, providing powerful compute and enabling modern economies.
Wednesday - January 10
Earnings watch - Notable companies due to report include KB Home (KBH).
All day - Nasdaq will release its update on short interest positions.
All day - The go-shop period on the Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) deal to merge with Eagle Bulk (EGLE) expires.
10:00 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will make keynote remarks at an event.
5:00 p.m. Qualcomm (QCOM) CEO Cristiano Amon and FOX Business Network’s Liz Claman will sit down for a CES keynote conversation highlighting the interaction with the company's devices in the AI age.
6:00 p.m. Best Buy (BBY) CEO Corie Barry will give a keynote address at CES on how the electronics retailer is meeting the changing consumer demands for technology.
Thursday - January 11
Earnings watch - Notable companies due to report include Infosys (INFY).
All day - It is the last trading day before the FDA action date on the priority review for Astellas Pharma's (OTCPK:ALPMF) Biologics License Application for zolbetuximab.
All day - Shareholders with Bluegreen Vacations Holding (BVH) vote on the acquisition offer from Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV). BVH traded about $0.15 below the deal price of $75 per share at the time of publication.
8:30 a.m. The Consumer Price Index report will be released. Economists expect a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the core inflation rate and 3.9% year-over-year rise.
Friday - January 12
Earnings watch - Notable companies due to report include UnitedHealth Group (UNH), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Blackrock (BLK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK).
8:30 a.m The producer price index report will be released. Economists expect a 0.2% month-over-month increase after stripping out food and energy costs.
10:00 a.m. Delta Air Lines (DAL) will hold its earnings call. The airline company's update is expected to be closely watched across the sector to see if the strong year-end traffic figures in the U.S. lead to a confident outlook for 2024. Shares of Delta Air Lines are up more than 8% over the last week.
Seeking Alpha editor Josh Fineman contributed to this story
Chart of the Week 📈
Source- Chart of the Day
Most believe they’ll need to save up at least $1 million to retire comfortably. But depending on where you plan to spend your post-work years, that may or may not be enough money to sustain you.
If you plan on retiring in the United States, it’s helpful to get an idea of how far you’ll be able to stretch your retirement funds in different states. Retirement can often last 25 years or more, according to Fidelity, but in states with high costs of living, $1 million may not be enough to cover your expenses for that long.
GoBankingRates took a look at how long $1 million would last in every state and found it wouldn’t be enough to cover 25 years of retirement expenses anywhere in the U.S.
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Thanks for reading, have a great day!
Gordon
Disclosure ✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.