Edition #25-Monday, April 17th 2023
Summary 📝
The market enjoyed another green week as earnings season kicked off with some big beats from the world’s biggest banks. CPI and PPI reports showed us that inflation in the US continues to cool, making the job of the Fed slightly less pressured.
It’s worth noting that the market is already up 8% for the year, with many investors hoping that the worst of interest rate hikes are behind us, and that the economy can withstand increased pressure with employment as high as it is.
Big banks are likely seeing some favourable conditions due to regional bank customers shifting to larger and more protected banks.
The most valuable insights will come from other companies in the next few weeks, with the biggest tech and retail companies all reporting on what they’re seeing from their perspective.
The Fear and Greed index continued to climb further into the Greed category, with the volatility index now well below 20, approaching the lowest we’ve seen in a year.
This is always a point to be careful, so be sure to watch the most critical earnings reports, keep some cash ready, and don’t be afraid of taking profits!
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Quiz Question of the Week ❓❓
Answer at the bottom!
This Week in History 📰
April 17, 1961 - A U.S.-backed attempt to overthrow Premier Fidel Castro of Cuba failed disastrously in what became known as the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
April 18, 1906 - The San Francisco Earthquake struck at 5:13 a.m., followed by a massive fire from overturned wood stoves and broken gas pipes.
April 23, 1564 - William Shakespeare (1564-1616) was born at Stratford-on-Avon, England. Renowned as the most influential writer in the English language, he created 36 plays and 154 sonnets.
Major Events This Week 🔬
Economic Events
Provided by Unusual Whales
Monday
8:30 am Empire State manufacturing
10:00 am Home builder confidence index
12:45 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
Tuesday
8:30 am Housing starts
8:30 am Building permits
1 pm Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks
Wednesday
2:00 pm Fed Beige Book
7:00 pm New York Fed President Williams speaks
Thursday
8:30 am Initial jobless claims
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
10:00 am Existing home sales
10:00 am U.S. leading economic indicators
12:00 pm Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks
12:20 pm Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks
3:00 pm Dallas Fed listens with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman
5:00 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
Friday
9:45 am S&P flash U.S. services PMI
9.45 am S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI
4:35 pm Fed Gov Lisa Cook speaks
Incoming Earnings Reports
Provided by Earnings Whispers
Notable Upcoming Earnings
Provided by Unusual Whales
Monday
$SCHW (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 9.4% Sector: Financial Services
$MTB (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.9% Sector: Financial Services
$STT (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.4% Sector: Financial Services
Tuesday
$BAC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.1% Sector: Financial Services
$JNJ (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 2.2% Sector: Healthcare
$GS (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 3.9% Sector: Financial Services
$BK (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.5% Sector: Financial Services
$LMT (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 2.9% Sector: Industrials
$NFLX (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 8.7% Sector: Technology
$UAL (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 6.1% Sector: Industrials
Wednesday
$MS (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.3% Sector: Financial Services
$ALLY (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 9.7% Sector: Financial Services
$USB (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.6% Sector: Financial Services
$ASML (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.4% Sector: Technology
$TSLA (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 8.3% Sector: Consumer Cyclical
$IBM (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 4.4% Sector: Technology
Thursday
$T (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.2% Sector: Communication Services
$TSM (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.0% Sector: Technology
$BX (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 6.1% Sector: Financial Services
$AXP (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.4% Sector: Financial Services
$TFC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.4% Sector: Financial Services
$CSX (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 3.9% Sector: Industrials
Friday
$PG (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 2.4% Sector: Consumer Defensive
Market Futures
Provided by Unusual Whales Futures
Follow my CNBC Watchlist at- Oak Investing Watchlist
Post of the Week 💌
✅ Most of your investments are probably held in some of the biggest companies we all know and love, but how often do you explore new markets and new sectors? 🤔
✅ Over the last few years, Japan has been an interesting areas of focus. With international markets outperforming the S&P in 2022, we might start to see an area of real untapped potential. 📈
✅ Warren Buffett has recently demonstrated interest in some Japanese companies, in particular Itochu. 💰
✅ Investing directly in these markets may be more complex with OTC markets, but plenty of great companies with exposure to the Japanese market are traded on the NYSE and LSE.
What’s Moving Markets? 🏃♂️
Google CEO Sundar Pichai warns society to brace for impact of A.I. acceleration, says ‘it’s not for a company to decide’
In an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday, Google CEO Sundar Pichai hinted that society isn’t prepared for the rapid advancement of AI.
Pichai said laws that guardrail AI advancements are “not for a company to decide” alone.
Warning of consequences, he said AI will impact “every product of every company.”
Yellen says U.S. banks may tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Elon Musk is reportedly planning an A.I. startup to compete with OpenAI, which he cofounded
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is working to launch an artificial intelligence firm to rival OpenAI, the Financial Times reported.
Musk has reportedly acquired thousands of Nvidia GPUs and has been recruiting AI researchers and engineers.
Musk was once a major investor in OpenAI but ruptured with the entity over issues of progress, direction and control.
Chart of the Week 📈
It now looks clear that the worst of inflation is behind us. Whether there will be a second, or even third peak is still up for debate, but it’s worth looking at how the market has responded to inflation peaking.
If we assume that inflation peaked around December, then the dip that can be seen in the following three months historically could well be coming.
However, with so much forecasting and expectation of a recession, many argue that the worst outcome has already been priced in. I expect that now is a good time to take some profits, as earnings season is always a time to expect some additional volatility, but with our view on the long term, I’m taking the opportunity to identify quality companies for my watchlist, and waiting patiently for them to reach my buying price.
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Quiz Question of the Week- Answer ❓
Answer- True!
The pirate stock exchange was officially founded in 2009 in Harardhere, Somalia.
It’s difficult to confirm the number of maritime operations listed on the Harardheere Pirate Stock Exchange due to a lack of credible statistics.
However, over 70 distinct maritime operations have been reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Thanks for reading, have a great day!
Gordon
Disclosure ✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.