Edition #5
Monday October 31st 2022
This Week in History 📰
2nd November 1936- The BBC launches the first official television channel
4th November 2008- Barack Obama is elected President
5th November 1605- The gunpowder plot is foiled in England’s Houses of Parliament
My Focus This Week 🔬
FOMC Rate Hike and Conference 1.30PM EST Wednesday
Insights from earnings calls on customer spending declining
Summary 📝
Last week was a wild ride for investors with exposure to the tech sector, with earnings report disappointment from Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and a slight beat for the largest company of the S&P500, Apple. Despite this, markets finished the week up 4%, with positive GDP data showing that the economy is still in growth mode.
This week will see more earnings reports from market giants such as AMD, Uber, RobinHood, Coinbase, and many more, but the biggest moment to focus on will be the FOMC coming this week.
The Federal Reserve are likely to hike interest rates by 75BPS on Wednesday to try and control inflation, but close attention will be paid to the narrative around what will come next. With the midterms coming in the next few weeks, and still uncertainty on how inflation is trending, the Fed will have to thread their approach through the eye of a needle to avoid a deeply unpopular, self-caused, recession.
Keep an eye on how markets are pricing in the likelihood of 50, 75 and 100BPS rises in the market through the CME FedWatch Tool:
CME Group- Federal Reserve Rates Likelihood
Market Recap 📈
Provided by Unusual Whales- Futures
Post of the Week 💌
What’s Moving Markets? 📈
Incoming Earnings Reports this week- provided by Earnings Whispers.
Events today- provided by Unusual Whales
Chart of the Week 📈
Interestingly, the next 5 trading days are historically some of the best of the year, with an average return of well above what we’d normally expect, in what I’ll call the Halloween Rally.
Of course, this has been a year like no other, so we sadly can’t guarantee such returns, but when we consider algorithms trading on patterns and seasonality, it’s always a factor worth considering.
The key takeaway is how the majority of the red is apparently behind us if history is anything to go by, so gradually putting your money to work in the market when the outlook is improving is always a smart strategy.
Investor’s Toolkit ⚒️
Follow for More 🎉
Oak Investor Coaching Homepage
Disclosure
✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.
Great roundup as always Gordon!