Edition #16-Tuesday February 21st 2023
Quiz Question of the Week ❓
Answers at the bottom!
This Week in History 📰
February 20, 1962 - Astronaut John Glenn became the first American launched into orbit.
February 20, 1732- George Washington (1732-1799) was born in Westmoreland County, Virginia. He served as commander of the Continental Army during the American Revolution and became the first U.S. President
February 21, 1965 - Former Black Muslim leader Malcolm X (1925-1965) was shot and killed while delivering a speech in a ballroom in New York City.
Summary 📝
Last week showed us all that investing is never predictable, with monthly inflation data showing signs of climbing again in January.
With strong employment numbers and retail sales, it looks likely that further interest rate increases will be required into 2023, potentially upsetting markets.
However, with the majority of the hard work done, as markets processed the steepest rate hikes in history, a few more bumps in the road may present some amazing buying opportunities.
As always, I want to focus on companies with the following qualities:
Pricing power 💰
A range of products/services 🚗
A loyal customer base 🥳
Resilient supply chains ⛓️
Household recognition 🏡
Strong cash reserves 💸
Innovation 🤖
Keep an eye on the key earnings reports this week, such as BABA 0.00%↑ & NVDA 0.00%↑ , and look to buy quality companies at great prices!
Major Events This Week 🔬
Monday- US Markets closed for President’s Day
Tuesday- S&P flash U.S. PMI
Wednesday- FOMC minutes of Feb.1 meeting
Thursday- Q4 2022 GDP, Initial jobless claims
Friday- PCE index
Incoming Earnings Reports This Week
Provided by Earnings Whispers
Market Recap 📈
Provided by Unusual Whales Futures
Post of the Week 💌
❗️ Superbowl Indicator👇
✅ Something a bit different for Super Bowl Sunday; a little known market indicator known as the Super Bowl indicator. 🏈
✅ Surprisingly accurate, Leonard Koppett’s indicator on the relationship between the winner of the NFL’s finale and the performance of the stock market in the year following. 📈
✅According to Forbes, the indicator has been right 41/55 games, with a win for the AFC team leading to a bear market in the year following, and a win for the NFC leading to a bull market for the year. 🐂🐻
✅ Obviously this is just for a bit of fun, but always worth giving a little guidance for the neutrals! 🏆
What do you think of the indicator? Do you have a NFL team you support? Let us know 🤔
What’s Moving Markets? 🏃♂️
‘They started the war’: Russia’s Putin blames West and Ukraine for provoking conflict
Western nations and Ukraine have repeatedly rejected Putin’s narrative.
The U.S. administration on Saturday formally concluded that Moscow had committed “crimes against humanity” during its year-long invasion of its neighbor.
Feb. 24 will mark one year since Russia mounted a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, beginning a ground war in Europe that Putin still refers to as a “special military operation.”
UK government runs unexpected budget surplus in January: ONS
Britain’s government ran an unexpected budget surplus in January which could give its finance minister a little more leeway as he prepares his annual budget.
The Office for National Statistics on Tuesday reported a seasonal budget surplus of £5.42 billion ($6.51 billion) in January, a month in which millions of Britons pay their income tax receipts.
A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to public sector net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, of £7.85 billion for January.
Covid’s ‘legacy of weirdness’: Layoffs spread, but some employers can’t hire fast enough
Layoffs have recently expanded beyond tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon.
Service industries such as hospitality and restaurants have been hiring to rebuild after the pandemic.
The Fed has been closely watching job and wage growth as it seeks to tame inflation.
Chart of the Week 📈
As discussed in the summary, inflation looked to be climbing again as January’s PCE surprised to the upside.
Whether this demonstrates that the economy remains resilient, or that inflation may be sticky enough to fall into “stagflation” territory, it is likely that the Fed will take an aggressive stance to bring this rise under control, keen to not allow a second peak of inflation to develop.
A second peak of inflation would remind many economists of the 1970s, where inflation dropped and spiked again, resulting in the Fed taking incredibly aggressive steps to bring this under control.
Investor’s Toolkit ⚒️
Unusual Whales- Options Flow and Analysis
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Disclosure ✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.
Quiz Question of the Week- Answer ❓
Answer B-Microsoft
Brazil’s entire stock market is valued at $988billion, compared to Microsoft’s market cap of $1.9trillion.
I wonder if there is anything interesting to look at in the Brazilian stock market