Edition #15-Monday January 16th 2023
Quiz Question of the Week ❓❓
Answers at the bottom.
This Week in History 📰
17th January- 1946 The UN Security Council holds its first session
18th January- 1997 Børge Ousland becomes the first person to cross Antarctica alone and unaided
January 20th- 2009 Barack Obama is sworn in as U.S. president
Summary 📝
So far, 2023 has been a great year for investors, with the S&P finally approaching the critical 4000 level we last saw in early December.
Investors are feeling a lot more hopeful as inflation looks to be meaningfully coming down from it’s peak in 2022. Thursday’s latest CPI print showed us that US inflation is now down at 7.1%, which is still a decent distance from the Fed’s 2% target, but clearly an improvement.
The focus is now less about inflation, and more about what the Fed plans on doing next. Will there be a continued focus on bringing inflation down to 2%, or will a more nuanced approach be taken if the economy starts to creak?
I think the approach will be to reach an average of 2% when considering the low inflation we saw leading up to the latest spike, with a lot of harsh rhetoric to prevent a second spike if rates are lowered too aggressively.
In the meantime, earnings season is upon us, and with some disappointing numbers likely to come in for Q4, I’d expect some very volatile trading in the next few weeks.
Key focus will be on the forward guidance though, and if companies are sold off but expect good things to come in 2023, there might be some diamonds to find in the rough.
As always, balance your portfolio risk appropriately, and don’t rely on any one company to support you. Anyone can disappoint in this environment, and I’m ensuring I have some cash ready to spend in the likely event we see a few surprises over the next few weeks!
Major Events This Week 🔬
Monday- US Markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Tuesday
Wednesday- US December PPI, US Retail sales
Thursday
US Initial jobless claims
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks
Friday
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
Incoming Earnings Reports This Week
Provided by Earnings Whispers.
My key focus is on the banks tomorrow, and then on Netflix on Thursday to give a insight into what we might expect from other tech companies.
Market Recap 📈
Provided by Unusual Whales Futures
Post of the Week 💌
✅ Are you ready to take your investment strategy to the next level?
✅ Gone are the days of pouring over financial reports and trying to make sense of market trends on your own. There are some amazing AI tools out there such as @torto.ai.official to transform you from a confused new investor to a master of the markets. 🥳
✅ A vital additional tool in my opinion is utilising the latest advancements in natural language processing and machine learning technology. 💻
✅ Everyone’s new favourite AI tool ChatGPT is able to analyse data, answer questions, summarise content, understand market sectors and provide you with tailored conclusions based on the data and questions provided, albeit with some limits on accuracy and relevance for now 🤖
✅ Investing in the stock market can be a daunting task for even the most experienced investors. But with these tools on your side, you can make data-driven decisions with confidence. 😎
✅ Say goodbye to the guesswork and hello to a smarter, more efficient way of investing. Don't leave your financial future to chance, try @torto.ai.official and @chatgpt today and experience the difference for yourself! 📈
3000 Followers Giveaway!
✅ We’ve broken the 3000 follower milestone in the Oak Investor Coaching Instagram, and to celebrate, I wanted to arrange a thank you! 🥳
✅ For your chance to win a £/$25 Amazon voucher, please follow the steps below:
1. Follow @oakinvestorcoaching 📈
2. Share any of my posts in your story and tag me 🏷️
3. Tag a friend in the comments ✉️
✅ The winner will be announced on my stories on Tuesday 17th 🥳
✅ Good luck, and thanks to each and every one of you for your support and engagement, I’m really excited to see where we are in the next 3000! 📈
What’s Moving Markets?
CNBC- As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy
Barclays on Friday raised its global growth forecast to 2.2% in 2023, up 0.5 percentage points from its last estimate in mid-November.
Berenberg also upgraded its euro zone forecast in light of recent news flow, particularly falling gas prices, a consumer confidence recovery and a modest improvement in business expectations.
TS Lombard on Friday lifted its euro area growth forecast from -0.6% to -0.1% for 2023.
CNBC- Bank of Japan could announce major policy shift this week as bond yields top limit again
Japan’s central bank could end its yield curve control policy when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting this week, economists said.
The move would come less than a month after the Bank of Japan caught markets off guard by widening its tolerance range for 10-year Japanese government bond yields.
The dollar is down almost 14% against the yen over the last three months, and the 10-year bond yield has jumped from 0.256% on Dec. 19 to around 0.502% on Monday.
CNBC- Saudi Arabia can ‘bridge the gap’ between the U.S. and China, finance minister says
The Saudi kingdom and the United States have a relationship that dates back to the 1930s, and which has been summed up in broad terms as one of Saudi oil in exchange for American-provided security.
China, meanwhile, has for years been making inroads — especially economically — as Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner and the largest buyer of its oil.
Chart of the Week 📈
I’m always on the lookout for asset types which have been less widely reported on, and gold has definitely fallen into that category over the last year.
2022 was an uncertain time for all investors, never sure where the safest place to be was due to rising rates, rising and volatile inflation, alongside general panic in the market. With most of the heavy lifting now done in terms of rates, commodities such as gold, which is normally a reliable inflation hedge, could well be back in trend.
Since November, we’ve seen some tremendously bullish price movement. If investors are now putting their money to work, even the more conservative investment types such as bonds and commodities could have a good year.
Investor’s Toolkit ⚒️
Unusual Whales- Options Flow and Analysis
5% off with code OAK2022
5% Discount with code OAK
5% discount with my signup link, and 20% off with code OAKINVESTOR20
Follow for More 🎉
Disclosure
✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.
Quiz Question of the Week- Answer
Answer D- 58,200
At the end of Q1 2022 the total number of listed companies stood at 58,200, which represented a 0.2% uptick on Q4 2021 and a 2.5% increase on Q1 2021.
Regionally, the Americas accounted for 20% of the global number of listed companies, APAC for 55% and EMEA for the rest 25%.