Edition #23-Monday April 3rd 2023
Quiz Question of the Week ❓❓
Answer at the bottom
This Week in History 📰
April 4, 1949 - Twelve nations signed the treaty creating NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
April 4, 1968 - Civil Rights leader Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King was shot and killed by a sniper in Memphis, Tennessee.
April 6, 1896 - After a break of 1500 years, the first Olympics of the modern era was held in Athens, Greece.
Summary 📝
Last week saw a third green week for the market, as the S&P rose 3%. Fears of a banking crisis seemed to cool as markets enjoyed a relatively quiet week in terms of breaking news.
We’re now in a technical bull market, as the NASDAQ has risen over 20% from its low in October, so it’s worth now thinking about taking some profits and rebalancing.
The Fear and Greed index crept into Greed for the first time in a month, with the volatility index now below 20.
I’ve always followed the strategy of taking profits below 20, and buying into the market when above 30. This isn’t a guaranteed strategy, but it’s worked well during the last year of volatility.
We’ve consistently seen the market reverting to the average trend due to the uncertainty in the market, so if things get too ahead of themselves, I don’t want to have too much skin in the game if the market starts to turn over.
Some day, hopefully soon, the market will start to trend upwards in a meaningful and more lasting way, but with the forecast recession still not technically here, many investors are likely waiting on the side-lines.
Major Events This Week 🔬
Economic Events
Monday
St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks
S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI
ISM manufacturing
Construction spending
Fed Gov. Cook speaks
Tuesday
Factory orders
Job openings
Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks
Wednesday
ADP employment
U.S. trade balance
S&P final U.S. services PMI
ISM services
Thursday
Initial jobless claims
Continuing jobless claims
St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks
Friday
U.S. employment report
U.S. unemployment rate
Average hourly wages
Average hourly wages (year over year)
Consumer credit
Incoming Earnings Reports
Provided by Earnings Whispers
Notable Upcoming Earnings
Monday
$SAIC (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 6.7% Sector: Technology
$DLO (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 15.1% Sector: Technology
Tuesday
$AYI (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.7% Sector: Industrials
Wednesday
$SMPL (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 8.0% Sector: Consumer Defensive
Thursday
S 0.00%↑ TZ (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.4% Sector: Consumer Defensive
$LEVI (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 8.2% Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Market Futures
Provided by Unusual Whales Futures
Follow my CNBC Watchlist at- Oak Investing Watchlist
Post of the Week 💌
✅ Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is an important economic indicator that measures the total spending by households on goods and services. It is a key component of GDP and is used to gauge the health of the economy.
✅ PCE includes all expenses incurred by households such as rent, utilities, groceries, healthcare, and transportation. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists.
✅ As an investor, it is important to keep an eye on the PCE data as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits and overall economic activity. A higher PCE usually indicates a healthy economy, while a lower PCE may signal an economic slowdown.
What’s Moving Markets? 🏃♂️
OPEC+ just made the Fed’s job more complicated. Here’s why they did it — and what could be next
Several OPEC+ members on Sunday announced intentions to voluntarily cut a further combined 1.16 million barrels per day of production, in a move independent from the broader bloc’s output strategy.
The reductions will challenge consumer governments, such as the U.S., which are already tackling high inflation and volatility in the banking sector.
A formal meeting of an OPEC+ technical committee takes place Monday to review the group’s existing strategy. It cannot change policy.
McDonald’s reportedly temporarily shuts its U.S. offices and prepares layoff notices
Tesla reports 422,875 deliveries for first quarter of 2023
Tesla posted its first-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2023 on Sunday.
Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Tesla and are not broken out by individual model or region.
Chart of the Week 📈
It’s hard to argue that the market seems to change day by day, with one sector rallying, another collapsing, and then the story takes another turn!
Hedge funds are no different to retail investors in the respect that they want to catch the latest trend, potentially with even more pressure to return profits for their clients.
But one thing is for sure, chasing a trend is never a winning strategy. Too often this leads to arriving to the party just as the music stops…
To stay clear of such a mistake, always have a clear idea of why you want to make an investment. If you want to speculate, then ensure your risk management is top of the priority list. If you lose, then it’s far better to take a minimal loss and move on, than feel tied to a huge losing trade to try and break even.
Investor’s Toolkit ⚒️
Unusual Whales- Options Flow and Analysis
5% off with code OAK2022
5% Discount with code OAK
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Disclosure ✅
This newsletter provides general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, please consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.
Quiz Question of the Week- Answer ❓
Answer B- April
The best performing months during the past 22 years within the S&P500 were the months of April, August and November, while January, June and September show the worst stock market seasonality performance.
The perspective changes slightly by looking at the past 5 years. The months of April, June, July and November are the best-performing years then, while the months of February and September were the absolute low-performers.
Source- DayTradingz